Phone Shipments Slow Down, Apple Faces Hurdles

So, check this out. Some big tech data folks, called International Data Corp, just dropped their guess on how many phones will be sent around the world in 2025. And, well, it's not looking as hot as they thought. They were thinking things would grow by like 2.6% but now they're saying closer to just 0.6%.

Why the big change? They're blaming it on things like those government taxes on stuff from other countries, you know, tariffs, and people just not spending as much money. This really makes things tough for companies like Apple, who are already seeing fewer sales. It's also because of all that drama between countries and those pesky tariffs.

These data folks think the growth is gonna stay pretty slow this year, just a little bit. Over the next five years, like from 2024 to 2029, they figure it'll only grow by about 1.4% each year. This is because more and more folks already have smartphones, people are keeping their phones longer before getting a new one, and also because of used phones taking some of the market.

But hey, even with all the world's problems, the U.S. and China might actually help things a little, causing a small 0.6% growth in phones sent out this year. China's market is expected to get bigger by 3% compared to last year. This is partly because the government there is giving money to help people buy phones that use Android.

Apple, on the other hand, might see a dip in 2025, maybe by 1.9%. They have to deal with competition from companies like Huawei, and the economy isn't helping either. Plus, a bunch of their phone models don't qualify for those government subsidies in China. But, there are some things coming up that could help them out.

For example, there are going to be some big sales during a festival in China called 618. Also, the new iPhone 17 is coming out, and they say it will have some pretty cool upgrades which should make people want to buy it.

Because of all the trade problems between the U.S. and China, Apple is trying to make more of their stuff in places like India and Vietnam. This helps them spread out where they make things so they don't rely so much on China.

But, gotta mention something President Donald Trump said. He mentioned that Apple might have to pay an extra 25% tax on iPhones sold in the U.S. if they aren't made right here. Wow, right?

Someone named Nabila Popal, who studies mobile phones for that IDC group, said that even with all these challenges, India and Vietnam are still the main places besides China where phones will be made. However, she also said that if there are extra taxes, like 20% or 30%, on phones coming into the U.S., it could really mess up how they think the market here will do. Like, seriously mess it up.