Smartphone Growth Slows Down

So, get this. The folks over at International Data Corp, you know, IDC, they totally dropped their guess for how much global smartphone shipments will grow by 2025. They used to say it would be around 2.3%, but now they're saying it's gonna be way less, like only 0.6%. Why? Well, they're blaming it on all that uncertain money stuff happening because of those tariff things and also people just not spending as much cash.

This is kind of a bummer for phone makers like Apple. They're already seeing sales slow down with all the global drama and those arguments about tariffs. IDC thinks things will just chug along with really slow growth for the rest of the year. Looking ahead, they figure over the next five years, from 2024 to 2029, phone shipments will only grow by about 1.4% each year. They mentioned a few reasons for this, like more people already having smartphones, people holding onto their phones longer before getting a new one, and also folks buying used phones instead of new ones.

Even with all the global tension, it seems like the US and China might actually help things a little bit, pushing a small 0.6% growth this year. China's market is expected to jump by 3% compared to last year, especially because the government is giving some help for phones that use Android. But Apple? They might see a drop of almost 2% in 2025. They're facing tough competition from Huawei and those money worries. Plus, a lot of their phone models can't get those government subsidies in China.

However! There's some hope. They're expecting some good discounts during this big shopping event in China called 618. Plus, the new iPhone 17 is coming out, and they're saying it's gonna have some cool new stuff, which should get people excited to buy. Because of all the trade arguments between the US and China, Apple is also setting up more places to make their phones in India and Vietnam. They're trying to spread things out and not rely so much on China.

But, President Donald Trump said that if iPhones sold in the US aren't made here, Apple would have to pay an extra 25% tax. Someone named Nabila Popal, who's a big research person at IDC, said that even with all these problems, India and Vietnam are still looking like the main spots for making smartphones besides China. But, she also said that if there are even more taxes, maybe 20% or 30%, on phones coming to the US, it could really mess up the outlook for the US market. Just so you know, they corrected something in the first part of this; the forecast was changed from 2.3%, not 2.6%.