Smartphone Market Forecast Cut: What It Means for Apple
So, get this: the folks at International Data Corp, or IDC, just tweaked their guess for how many smartphones will ship around the world in 2025. They used to think it would grow by 2.3%, but now they're saying it'll only be 0.6%. That's a pretty big drop, right?
They're saying it's because of all the uncertainty out there with tariffs and people just not spending as much money. This is kinda tough for companies like Apple, who are already seeing sales slow down because of, you know, all the global drama and trade disagreements happening.
IDC figures growth is gonna stay pretty low, like in the single digits, for the rest of the year. And over the next five years, from 2024 to 2029, they think it'll grow maybe 1.4% each year. That's not super fast, and it's partly because tons of people already have smartphones, they're not getting new ones as often, and also cause of all those used phones out there.
Even though there's all this global tension, the US and China are actually expected to help things out a little bit this year, maybe driving a tiny 0.6% growth in shipments. China's market, for example, is expected to grow by 3% compared to last year, partly thanks to the government giving some help for Android phones.
Apple, though, might see a bit of a dip, maybe 1.9% in 2025. They've got competition from places like Huawei, and the economy isn't making things easier. Plus, a bunch of their phone models don't even qualify for those government helps in China.
But hey, there's some stuff that might boost things. There are gonna be some deals during the 618 shopping thing in China soon, and the new iPhone 17 is coming out with what sounds like some cool upgrades. That should get people interested, right?
Apple is also trying to play it smart with all the US-China trade stuff. They're making more phones in places like India and Vietnam so they're not so reliant on China. However, President Trump recently said that if iPhones sold in the US aren't made here, they could get hit with a 25% tariff. Ouch.
Nabila Popal, who knows a lot about phones at IDC, said that India and Vietnam are still looking like the main spots besides China for making smartphones. But she also said that if more tariffs, like 20% or 30%, get put on phones coming into the US, it could really mess up how the US market looks right now. Idk, what do you think about all this?
