Smartphone Shipments Slowing Down, Bad News for iPhone?

So, check this out. The folks over at International Data Corp, or IDC if you're feeling fancy, just dropped their forecast for how many smartphones they think will ship globally in 2025. And it's not looking as hot as they thought. They cut their prediction way down, from 2.3% growth to just 0.6%. Pretty wild, right?

They're saying it's all because of this whole tariff thing causing economic-y uncertainty and, well, people just not spending as much. This is kinda tough news for companies like Apple, who were already seeing sales slow down thanks to all the world tension and tariff arguments.

IDC figures things will stay pretty slow, like low single-digit growth, for the rest of this year. Over the next five years, they see growth averaging about 1.4% each year. They think more people getting smartphones, people keeping their phones longer, and more folks buying used phones are all part of why it's not sky-high.

Even with all the global drama, the US and China are actually expected to help things a little this year, driving a small 0.6% growth in shipments. China's market is even expected to grow by 3% compared to last year, partly because the government there is giving a little boost to Android phones.

Apple, though? They might actually see a dip of 1.9% in 2025. They're facing stiff competition from Huawei and the economy is just… tough. Plus, a bunch of their phone models don't even qualify for those government boosts in China. But hey, maybe the upcoming sales during their 618 shopping festival in China and the new iPhone 17, which sounds like it'll have some cool upgrades, will perk things up a bit. Maybe?

To deal with all the US-China trade stuff, Apple is apparently making more phones in places like India and Vietnam. They're trying not to rely so much on China for making everything. But then President Trump said that iPhones made outside the US and sold here could get hit with a 25% tariff. Like, yikes.

Nabila Popal, who's a senior research director at IDC, said that yeah, India and Vietnam are still looking like good alternatives to China for making phones. But, she also said that if those tariffs on phones coming into the US get slapped with an extra 20-30%, it could really mess up the forecast for the US market. So, fingers crossed, I guess?