Smartphone Shipments Slowing Down - What Does That Mean for Apple?

So, get this: the folks over at International Data Corp (that's IDC) just seriously lowered their prediction for how many smartphones they think will be shipped worldwide in 2025. They were thinking 2.3% growth, but now it's only 0.6%! They're saying it's because of things like tariffs, which are like extra taxes on stuff from other countries, making people unsure about the economy. Plus, I guess people aren't spending as much money right now.

This isn't great news for companies like Apple, who are already seeing sales slow down. All the tension between countries and these tariff fights are making things tricky. IDC doesn't expect things to jump up much anytime soon, maybe just a little growth in the next few years. This is because more people already have smartphones, they're keeping their phones longer before buying new ones, and also, people are buying used phones.

Even with all the global drama, it looks like the US and China might actually see a tiny bit of growth this year, maybe around 0.6%. China's market might even grow by 3% compared to last year! This is happening because the government there is actually giving out help to people buying Android phones.

Apple, though, is looking at a bit of a dip in 2025, maybe down 1.9%. They've got competition from companies like Huawei, and the economic stuff is hitting them too. A bunch of their phone models aren't even included in those government deals in China, which kinda stinks. But hey, maybe the big sales event in China called '618' and the new iPhone 17 coming out (which is supposed to have some cool new features) will help boost sales.

To deal with the US and China stuff, Apple is trying to make more phones in places like India and Vietnam. This way, they're not relying so much on China. But, President Trump said that if iPhones sold in the US aren't made here, they could get hit with a big 25% tax. Nabila Popal, who follows this stuff for IDC, said that even though India and Vietnam are good options for making phones instead of China, adding more taxes on phones coming to the US could really mess things up for the market here.