Smartphone Shipments Slowing Down, What's Up With Apple?

Okay, so get this. Some folks over at this company called International Data Corp, or IDC for short, just dropped their prediction for how many smartphones are gonna be shipped around the world in 2025. And let me tell ya, it's not looking as great as they thought before. They used to think we'd see like a 2.6% bump in shipments, but now they're saying it'll only be 0.6%. That's a pretty big dip, right? They're blaming it on things like those annoying tariffs and people just not spending as much money.

This is kind of a big deal for companies like Apple. You know, the guys who make iPhones. They're already having a bit of a tough time with sales, partly because of all the political stuff happening between countries and those same tariff issues. IDC figures growth will stay pretty slow this year. Looking ahead for the next five years, they think things will only grow by about 1.4% each year. This is because more people already have smartphones, folks are holding onto their phones longer before getting a new one, and also, like, used phones are a thing now.

Even with all the global tension, the U.S. and China are actually expected to help things out a little bit and push smartphone shipments up by a small 0.6% this year. China's market is actually looking pretty good, predicted to grow by 3% compared to last year. They're even giving out some money to help people buy Android phones, which is interesting.

Now, for Apple, things are looking a bit shaky in 2025. They're looking at a possible 1.9% drop. Huawei is giving them a run for their money over there, and the economic stuff isn't helping. A bunch of Apple's phones just don't qualify for those government subsidies in China either. But, hey, maybe some upcoming sales during a big shopping event over there, and the new iPhone 17 coming out with cool upgrades, will give demand a boost? Who knows?

Because of all the disagreements between the U.S. and China, Apple is trying to make more of its stuff in places like India and Vietnam. They want to spread things out and not rely so much on China. But, um, remember when President Trump said Apple would have to pay a big 25% tax on iPhones sold in the U.S. if they weren't made here? Yeah, that's still something to think about.

So, even though India and Vietnam are looking like good options for making phones instead of China, adding even more taxes like 20% to 30% on phones coming into the U.S. could really mess things up for the U.S. market outlook, according to Nabila Popal, who does research at IDC. It's all a bit up in the air, isn't it?