Uh Oh: Smartphone Sales Growth Forecast Slashed!
Hey, so big news from International Data Corp, they just said they're cutting their guess for how much the world will buy smartphones in 2025.
They thought it would grow by 2.6% but now they're saying it'll only be like, 0.6%. That's a pretty big drop, right? They're saying it's because of things like tariffs, you know, those extra taxes on stuff from other countries, and also people just aren't spending as much money. This is kinda rough for companies like Apple, who are already having a tough time selling phones. Geopolitics, all that tense stuff happening around the world, and tariff arguments aren't helping things either.
IDC thinks growth will stay kinda low all year. Over the next five years, from 2024 to 2029, they figure it'll grow about 1.4% each year. That's because more people already have smartphones, they're keeping their old phones longer before getting new ones, and also people are buying used phones more often now.
Despite all the world tension, believe it or not, the US and China are still gonna help push smartphone sales up a little bit this year, maybe about 0.6%. China's market is actually expected to grow by 3% compared to last year, apparently the government there is giving out money to help people buy Android phones.
Apple, on the other hand, might see a small dip in sales next year, like 1.9%. They've got competition from, like, Huawei, and the economy is rough. Plus, a bunch of their phone models don't qualify for those government handouts in China. But hey, there are some sales coming up in China called the '618 shopping festival' and the new iPhone 17 is coming out with some cool new stuff, so maybe that will help people want to buy phones again.
Because of all the US-China trade stuff, Apple is trying to make more of their phones in places like India and Vietnam instead of just China. They're trying to spread things out so they're not so dependent on one place. However, get this, President Trump said that if Apple sells iPhones in the US that weren't made here, they'd get hit with a 25% tax. That sounds like a headache for Apple.
Someone from IDC, Nabila Popal, said that even with all these problems, India and Vietnam are still the main places besides China for making smartphones. But she also said that if there are even bigger taxes, like 20-30%, on phones coming into the US, it could really mess up the whole picture for the US market. That makes sense, right? Like, who wants to pay way more for a phone just because of taxes?
